My day today will be spent studying Brazilian demographics, and I know what you’re thinking: How did I get so lucky? I mean, come on, most of us have to work but you get to spend your day studying Brazilian demographics. How is that fair?
Friday, my wife and I leave for a week in Brazil. I’ve been invited to speak at a conference next week in Sao Paulo. These types of invitations are rare for me. While at a conference in November, a young man approached me and said, “Can you do that same speech in February in Brazil?” “Sure,” I said. “No problem. Easy.” Well, it’s not easy, which leads me to today, carefully studying and incorporating the Brazilian data to replace my US data that I used in November.
Much of the data is very similar. Young women are outperforming young men in education. Women are having first babies older and having babies into older age. People are getting married at older ages. Household sizes are falling. Life-spans are increasing, meaning Brazilians will be in retirement longer. There are worrying trends in whether the Brazilian federal system will be able to support retirees long-term, much like there are new rumblings here about whether our social security system will be able to fund payments in the future. All familiar stuff.
Up until recently, I would have said their political climate was very volatile with their in and out of favor populist, president Jair Bolsonaro but, his ascendance and the turmoil it created looks very similar to what we’re seeing here. Even his presidential portrait is of him in some combination of a scowl and a frown, much like Trump’s presidential portrait that was released a few weeks ago.
My comments will be translated into Portuguese as I speak, meaning I need to go slow so the translators can keep up. I find it difficult to pace myself like this. My words will need to be carefully chosen. When normally I can explain something well-enough with a paragraph, I need to now do it in a sentence. Writing these commentaries each week has helped me as a speaker. Writing has taught me to be more precise in speaking.
And as much as I’m excited to work with my Brazilian client, my wife and I are leaving for Brazil early to enjoy a short trip to a seaside community that will include a drive to a bunch of waterfalls and a tour of the coastline by water. Beaches, waterfalls, plus a trip to a distillery that makes something like rum but is not rum, and, truth be told, I’ve spent more time looking into the waterfalls, the coastline, and rum but not rum than I have looking into Brazilian demographics. Focused preparation has been a problem. I’m even looking repeatedly at the weather forecasts for the seaside community – all poor uses of time considering the prep work that is still needed. I’m a champion at finding things to do that are not urgent and finding ways to justify doing them. Like this commentary.
And, with that truth-bomb announced, I will now put this away and get back to Brazilian demographics.
I’m Cam Marston, and I’m just trying to keep it real.
