LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The U.S.'s neighbors are preparing for President-elect Trump to return to the White House in two months. Yesterday, we took a look at what Canada is doing. Today, we turn to Mexico, which also has a new president. Claudia Sheinbaum succeeded Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who Trump worked with in his first term. Matias Gomez Leautaud is a lead analyst for the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. He says Sheinbaum will face new challenges with Trump.
MATIAS GOMEZ LEAUTAUD: I expect it will be very different than the first time around, given that Lopez Obrador was very able to manage Trump and some of his more maximalist demands. Sheinbaum is a slightly weaker president than Lopez Obrador, so this will complicate her ability to grant some of Trump's demands without incurring in some political costs in her own country.
FADEL: What are the proposed policies that the president-elect has suggested, like the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants that Mexico is watching and preparing for?
GOMEZ LEAUTAUD: I would say that the three priority issues out of which several policies will arise are immigration, security and trade. And this is what the Mexican government is gearing for, for a pretty confrontational stance from the U.S. on immigration very saliently, which is mixed with the other issues. On the campaign trail, Trump said that Mexican immigrants were carrying fentanyl and that if Sheinbaum did not stop them, he would impose tariffs. And here, you can see that he very deftly included all three issues, bundling them together.
FADEL: I guess we should break it down. Let's start with immigration. If you could break down what this means for Mexico.
GOMEZ LEAUTAUD: Yeah. It is a very ambitious policy. I mean, deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants is going to be a very heavy lift. Let's say for the sake of argument that he is able to pressure Mexico into accepting a fraction of this - between 2 to 3 million immigrants - this would be very disruptive for a country that has been struggling to come to terms with the fact that it is no longer a transit country and an origin country of immigration flows, but also a destination country because it's very important to take into account that in President-elect Trump's ideal world, this wouldn't only be Mexican nationals, but also from other countries in Latin America.
FADEL: Now, Trump has also said that he would use the U.S. military against Mexico's drug cartels. What have government officials in Mexico said about this?
GOMEZ LEAUTAUD: Yeah. So this is the third leg of a stool, the security issue. And it's not only Trump but also some high-profile Republicans like Representative Dan Crenshaw, for example. So this is a view that is beginning to carry some weight among Republican circles. I'd expect that a key concession that can be granted is to allow DEA agents to operate in Mexico again because, during Lopez Obrador's term, the DEA agents were no longer allowed to operate in Mexico freely. However, the violence and insecurity situation will - in Mexico will remain very salient, as well as the public health situation in the U.S. with regards to fentanyl overdoses. So it is a very complicated issue to be dealt with. It does need cooperation from both sides.
FADEL: That's Matias Gomez Leautaud. He's the Eurasia Group's lead analyst from Mexico. Thank you so much for your time.
GOMEZ LEAUTAUD: Thank you so much. Happy to talk to you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
