JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
Exit polls show that more Latino voters still went for Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but data also show that in the Trump era of American politics, Democrats have been winning Latino voters by less and less. Vice President Harris' margin was smaller than President Biden's in 2020, which was smaller than Hillary Clinton's margin in 2016, which was smaller than Barack Obama's margin in 2012. Let's hear more about that from political consultant Mike Madrid. He's the author of "The Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy." Hi there.
MIKE MADRID: Hi - great to be with you.
SUMMERS: Great to talk with you. OK, Mike, so I have been scrolling through my news feed, and I feel like half of the articles I've seen unpacking what happened in this election have to do with Latino voters. So I just want to start there. What's caught your eye?
MADRID: Well, it is the most significant shift of all the vote breaks that are happening that are confounding folks right now. But it's also, I think, one of the most predictable, and it's likely to continue unless the Democrats make some adjustments. And Latino voters will be determinative as a voter group going forward.
SUMMERS: I'm hoping you can walk us through the map a little bit. As you survey the landscape, are there places in this country where you found the results particularly surprising?
MADRID: No. I wouldn't say surprising, except for maybe the size. I figured we would probably see a 2 to 3% erosion from Democrats for the next couple of cycles. This is significantly bigger than that. So remember; this happened in Texas. This happened in Arizona and Pennsylvania. This happened in California, absolutely happened in Florida. So this is a national trend that is defying the diasporas that make up the Latino electorate, and it really speaks to the need to understand that the one common throughline is that this is the emerging working class in the country. We should not be surprised that Latinos are leading this exodus from the Democratic Party as they become a more pocketbook voter and less of a racial and ethnic voter.
SUMMERS: OK, let's talk about that a little bit more. I'm curious. In your point of view, did the Trump campaign do something different that the Harris campaign didn't do when it came to appealing to Latinos on those pocketbook issues - jobs and the economy - that you're referencing there?
MADRID: There's a lot of evidence to suggest that Latinos are becoming a more economic populist voter. There's very little evidence suggesting they're becoming more conservative. And that's an important distinction because when Donald Trump talks about no taxes on tips, you know, restrictionist in trade, closing the border, he's really speaking to the angst of a lot of these blue-collar workers...
SUMMERS: Right.
MADRID: ...That are broadly felt in the country but most acute with Latinos.
SUMMERS: It might seem hard for some people to understand and digest a rise in Latino support for President-elect Trump given that he has repeatedly promised mass deportations. He at times uses racist language to describe immigrants in this country. How do you square that?
MADRID: In many ways, it's asking somebody who's here whose grandparents were from Ireland about their policies related to the potato famine. So it should be no different that a Latino is asked that question about mass deportations than somebody who is non-Hispanic white. And for many, that is a line too far. For me, it is. The morality of that policy position is one I'm offended by as an American and as by a human being, then as a Latino. And if people understand it that way, I think it might give them some more insight as to why they're not getting the, quote-unquote, "expected" response from Latino voters.
SUMMERS: Let's talk about another demographic change in the Latino electorate, and that has to do with the age of the population. The Latino population in the United States is younger than the U.S. population on the whole. So a big share of Latino voters are under the age of 30. Many of them are perhaps even voting for their first time. How does that play in here?
MADRID: This is a really significant question that people should really keep in mind when they're understanding the transformation that our democracy is about to undertake. Almost 40% of Latinos are under the age of 30 years old. Twenty percent of the entire Latino electorate voted for the first time on Tuesday, and it is already larger as a voting group than Black Americans are.
And this group is exhibiting extremely significant populist tendencies. It has the weakest partisan anchor of any race or ethnic cohort. This younger Latino is overwhelmingly U.S.-born, and many or most of them are third- and now a discernible fourth-generation voter. This is a group that is far removed from the immigration and immigrant experience, and they are centrally focused on a system that they believe does not work for them. And so in many ways, this election needs to be viewed, and this broader exodus from the Democratic Party, as leaving the Democratic Party and not necessarily being compelled by a Republican message.
SUMMERS: We've been speaking with Mike Madrid. His new book is called "The Latino Century." Mike, thanks.
MADRID: Thank you so much for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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