Respondents in a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll aren't convinced Vice President Harris, as president, would carry out the proposals she's put forward during this campaign, in a sign of what may be preventing her from closing the deal with voters.
Voters were evenly split, 49% to 49%, on whether they thought Harris intends to carry out the proposals, or if her promises are just politics, intended to make people vote for her.
Still, Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump among likely voters, fueled by white, college-educated voters, Black voters and Latinos. But she continues to lag with younger voters compared to how Democrats have historically performed with the group, with just a day to go until the final votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election.
She may also be holding up well because the poll found the narrowest gap between Trump and Harris on who likely voters said would be best to handle the economy, with 50% saying Trump and 49% saying Harris. Trump had previously led on beliefs about his handling of the economy.
But Harris hasn't quite been able to seize the change mantle as part of the Biden administration, as voters were split on who most represents change: 50% said Trump, 48% chose Harris.
The survey of 1,560 adults was conducted Oct. 31 through Sunday. It includes 1,446 registered voters and 1,297 likely voters. With registered voters, the survey has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error. With likely voters, it's a 3.5 point margin of error, meaning results could be 3.5 points higher or lower.
Most early voters voted for Harris
A majority of respondents said they have already voted — and most early voters selected Harris. A majority of those who said they have not yet voted, but intend to, said they would cast their ballots for Trump.
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Voters also said they are motivated by protecting democracy, inflation, abortion rights and immigration.
While most said their candidate should accept the results of the election, nearly 4 in 10 Republicans said Trump should challenge them if he's determined to be the loser — and more than 7 in 10 said they are concerned about violence after the election.
Trump is seen as more likely to carry out promises
When it comes to Trump, 55% said they think he will follow through and enact his policies — as controversial as they are in many cases.
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The split on this question of which candidate will carry out their policies mirrors the gender divide in this election. A majority of women said they believe Harris is sincere in what she's proposing, while a majority of men said the proposals are more about politics.
One of the hurdles Harris has had to overcome in this campaign is her promises from her 2019 presidential bid, when she tried — and failed — to appeal to progressives to win the Democratic nomination. She has been running a much more moderate campaign this time.
Neither Harris nor Trump has a clear advantage in this election
Harris has a 51% to 47% lead among likely voters, up 2 points from a month ago, but within the survey's margin of error.
Among registered voters, it's a dead heat — 49% to 49%. That means these final hours of voter mobilization are critical and likely to be intense.
The Harris campaign said that over the weekend, some 90,000 volunteers knocked on 3 million doors, for example. Trump has ramped up his events, with four rallies planned across three states on Monday.
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Harris does best in the survey with white women with college degrees, people who live in big cities, Black voters and Latinos. She is winning baby boomers — or those between 60 and 78 years old — as well as Gen Z, but she's only winning 56% of Gen Z. In the last 20 years, Democrats have won when they have gotten at least 60% of voters 18 to 29.
This survey was Harris' best result with Black voters since she got into the race — 83% said they are voting for her. She also does better than she or President Biden had been doing with Latinos earlier in the year, with 61% now saying they are going to cast a vote for Harris. That is marginally lower, however, than past Democratic performances with Hispanic voters.
Harris makes up for her deficiencies with younger voters and Latinos with white voters. She's winning 45% of white voters, equal to last month. Democrats generally have to get above 40% with white voters to win.
Trump, meanwhile, continues to do best with those who identify as white evangelical voters, those who live in rural areas and those without college degrees, particularly men.
The gender gap persists
Overall, there is a 15-point gap between men and women in their support for Harris or Trump. Harris leads with women by 11 percentage points; Trump leads by 4 points with men. That's actually smaller than last month's whopping 34-point divide.
The gender divide becomes particularly pronounced by education. On the question of whether Harris actually intends to enact her promises or if they're just political, 53% of women said she intends to follow through, while 54% of men said the opposite.
But there's a 72-point gap between white women with degrees and men without them. By a 67% to 32% margin, white women with degrees said they believe Harris intends to carry out what she's promising — a 35-point difference.
When it comes to men without degrees, by a 67% to 30% margin, they said her promises are just politics intended to get people to vote for her.
Harris has been targeting Republican women, campaigning, for example, with Rep. Liz Cheney, a conservative former congresswoman from Wyoming and daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney.
But that push may be as much about women who identify as independents and lean Republican. In the survey, just 6% of Republican women said they are casting their ballot for Harris. A similar 4% of Democrats said they're voting for Trump.
But Harris leads with independent women, 48% to 46%.
Preserving democracy and inflation are top of mind for voters
More than 3 in 10 voters said preserving democracy is what they're most thinking about, when asked what they're thinking about when casting their ballot. That was followed by inflation, immigration and abortion issues.
Of course, there's a divide by party and who people say they are voting for.
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Preserving democracy is most important, for example, for Harris voters, but it's also top of mind for independents. Half of Harris voters and 3 in 10 independents cited it as their top issue. So maybe it's no surprise that this is what Harris has been focused on in her closing arguments.
Trump voters, on the other hand, said inflation and immigration are most important for them. Independents said inflation and immigration were second and third most important after preserving democracy.
Notably, when voters were asked what their second choice would be, abortion rights is second behind inflation as the second-most important issue. That was especially true for Democrats, showing just how salient and motivating the issue is for them.
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