Based on Donald Trump's first term and his campaign statements, the United States will become less predictable, more chaotic, colder to allies and warmer to some strongmen, and much more transactional in picking friends globally than before. Trump critics and supporters say America's place in world affairs and security will fundamentally change. One European country where all this seems okay is Serbia.
That’s according to Tamara Bajcic. She’s CEO of the fact checking, anti-disinformation, think tank in Belgrade called DEMOSTAT. APR first met Bajcic at the invitation of the U.S. State Department. The agency asked the news team to address a delegation from Europe, Central Asia, the Baltics, and the Balkans on how to avoid news disinformation. Bajcic was part of that group. APR reached out to her to get an international perspective on the election.
“They (average Serbians) think that Trump is in favor of Russia, and that's why they think he will end or all the wars,” said Bajcic. “They think he will not support the continuation of war in Gaza and in Lebanon. So that's a reason why. Also one of the reason also, they think that for some reason Republicans are more in favor of Serbs and especially Trump.”
Bajcic says one of the challenges of her job is that 80% of Serbia’s population is pro-Russian. Typically U.S. Presidential elections don’t attract a lot of attention. That wasn’t the case with the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bajcic says she was invited onto a TV show called EuroNews Serbia to comment on the election.
“I was speaking about Russian propaganda and Russian disinformation in the context of American elections here in Serbia,” she said. “So it's really a hot topic. Everyone is having TV shows. Everyone is inviting you to talk even about this information, which is not seen very often here.”
U.S. President typically give lip service to being leaders of the free world. Trump isn’t like that and the world has gotten the message. He's threatened to pull out of NATO and walk away from Ukraine and Taiwan. His backers say he's simply more judicious than past U.S. presidents about which battles and alliances to engage in. Before the election, partners and adversaries already were reevaluating their security arrangements in preparation for Trump's possible return.
"We must not delegate forever our security to America," French President Emmanuel Macron said at a European summit Thursday.
Based on Trump's first term and campaign statements, the U.S. will become less predictable, more chaotic, colder to allies and warmer to some strongmen, and much more transactional in picking friends globally than before. America's place in world affairs and security will fundamentally change, both critics and supporters of Trump say. His backers say he simply will be choosier about U.S. alliances and battles than previous presidents.
When it comes to the U.S. role on the world stage, no more talk of the country as leader of the free world, said Fiona Hill, a former Russia adviser to Trump and preceding U.S. presidents.
Maybe "the free-for-all world, his leadership?" Hill suggested in a recent European Council for Foreign Relations podcast. "I mean, what exactly is it that we're going to be leading here?"
Trump, with varying degrees of consistency, has been critical of NATO and support for Ukraine and Taiwan, two democracies under threat that depend on U.S. military support to counter Russia and China. Trump has shown little interest in the longstanding U.S. role as anchor of strategic alliances with European and Indo-Pacific democracies. Before the election, partners and adversaries already were reevaluating their security arrangements in preparation for Trump's possible return.
European allies in particular bolstered efforts to build up their own and regional defenses, rather than rely on the U.S. as the anchor of NATO, the mutual-defense pact both Trump and running mate JD Vance have spoken of scathingly. Within hours of Trump's win over Vice President Kamala Harris, defense chiefs of France and Germany scheduled talks to address the impact.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revived a special Cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations to address concerns about another Trump presidency. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, now ambassador to the U.S., whose government is investing in an American defense partnership, deleted old tweets that included calling Trump "the most destructive president in U.S. history."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin have appeared to shape war strategies with hopes that Trump could allow them freer rein. Victoria Coates, a security adviser to Trump in his first term, rejects any portrayal of him as isolationist.
"I think he is extremely judicious about the application of the American military, and about potentially getting embroiled in conflicts we can't resolve," she said recently on a security podcast.
As evidence of his engagement globally, Coates pointed to Trump's support of Israel as it wages wars against Iranian-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
She called Iran's nuclear program the "greatest concern" abroad and suggested its progress toward the possibility of nuclear weapons meant Trump might have to act more forcefully than in his first term, when he surged sanctions on Iran in what he called a "maximum pressure" campaign.
Trump, long an open admirer of Putin, has been most consistent in pointing to support for Ukraine as a possible policy change.
Philip Breedlove, a former Air Force general and top NATO commander, said he can see both positive expectations and deep concerns for Ukraine and NATO in the next four years under Trump.
While Trump's NATO rhetoric during his first administration was often harsh, it didn't lead to any actual U.S. troop reductions in Europe or decreased support for the alliance, Breedlove said. And 23 NATO nations are spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense, compared with 10 in 2020 — helping counter a persistent Trump complaint.
More concerning, Breedlove said, is Trump's vow to end the war in Ukraine right away.
Tamara Bajcic, at DEMOSTAT, says that’s the expectation of the average Serbian citizen.
“They seem to think that Trump is not someone who wants to continue the war in Ukraine. And as you know, Serbia supports the majority of population here, unfortunately supports Russia when it comes to this terrible war in Ukraine, even though it's completely logical, but unfortunately, the majority and the surveys and people say they do so. They think that Trump is in favor of Russia, and that's why they think he will end or all the wars,” she said.
