The National Hurricane Center in Miami is keeping an eye on a system that could become Tropical Storm Ernesto early this week. The agency says there’s an 80% chance the area of disturbed weather could develop into a named storm. This comes as the center reminds Alabama Gulf coast residents and the nation that elements are lining up to make the peak of the 2024 hurricane season especially active.
The new interest in what may be Ernesto comes as a weakening Tropical Storm Debby brought rain and flooding to the Northeast and New England. The Tropical wave is currently located between the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean Sea in the south-central Atlantic Ocean. The storm is predicted to grow into a tropical depression as it moves closer to the lesser Antilles.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is updating its hurricane forecast to now include anywhere from seventeen to twenty four storms, with eight to thirteen becoming hurricanes. That outlook includes the possibility of four to seven of those storms becoming major hurricanes. The agency calls current hurricane conditions in the Atlantic “remarkable.”
August through October is considered the height of any hurricane season, and NOAA is watching a series of factors that could contribute to the development of strong hurricanes. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an enhanced west African monsoon, and reduced vertical wind shear that can tear storms apart before they threatened land have forecasters concerned. NOAA called the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record. Forecaster say landfall of a major storm could damaging winds, storm surge and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. Residents are urged to have a plan if asked to evacuate.
Tropical Storm Alberto formed in mid-June, and over the following days it brought nearly a foot of rain to parts of Texas and New Mexico, triggering flash flood emergencies. However, it was Hurricane Beryl that turned forecasters heads, by becoming the earliest category-5 storm on record in the Atlantic basin. Beryl caused catastrophic damage and approximately twenty fatalities in several islands in the Caribbean Sea. There was an additional preliminary death toll of about 25 people in Texas, Louisiana and Vermont.
