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Commercial shipping companies are closely watching a new U.S. military offensive in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. The targets are Houthi rebels, who, for more than a year, have been attacking ships, choking off transit in one of the world's most critical waterways. The Pentagon says it will stay on the offensive until the Houthis stop the attacks, but even then, it's not clear ships will race back to the Red Sea. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam reports.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: Houthi militants began regularly targeting military and commercial ships passing through the Red Sea shortly after the Gaza war started in 2023, hitting about 100 vessels and sinking two. That stopped once Israel and Hamas declared a ceasefire. But after Israel cut off the flow of humanitarian aid and then launched a new offensive on Gaza, Houthis announced they will renew attacks. The target is any vessel associated with Israel.
LARS JENSEN: It's a gray zone because when does a vessel belong to a certain country? That's not as easy as you might think.
NORTHAM: Lars Jensen is CEO of Vespucci Maritime, a Copenhagen-based advisory service. He says given the complex nature of the shipping industry, it's difficult to determine the ships linked to Israel.
JENSEN: Are you looking at who is operating the ship, who is owning the ship, which ports are the ship calling, who has got cargo on board? So there's a multitude of definitions. There's a lot of ships that fall within that target range.
NORTHAM: Including the U.S. Jensen says the risks for ship transiting through the Red Sea right now are enormous.
JENSEN: If you are attacked by the Houthis, a worst-case scenario is, of course, you lose your ship. Now, if I got a fairly small vessel, I'm looking at a potential loss of maybe 10, $20 million. If you are talking one of the large container ships, the value of the ship and the cargo can easily be $1 billion.
NORTHAM: What with the increased risk of attacks and rising insurance premiums, major shipping companies have chosen to divert from the Red Sea, instead going around South Africa, adding costs, time and shaking up global supply chains.
Basil Karatzas, CEO of New Jersey-based Karatzas Maritime (ph) Advisors, says the year-long disruption by Houthi attacks is bad for shipping, and he applauds Trump's efforts to launch an offensive. The first airstrikes against militants began last weekend.
BASIL KARATZAS: You know, we have to make sure the waters, globally, are free of risks like that. But I'm not sure if it's properly done. I think it needs to be much more orchestrated.
NORTHAM: Karatzas says the Houthis don't have large military bases. They can fire a missile or a drone at a commercial ship to keep the area destabilized. Karatzas says the U.S. needs to coordinate with allies for a more effective operation.
KARATZAS: You have to have, like, you know, constant presence over there, first of all, to escort and help all the merchant marine traffic. And then, you know, you have to keep constantly hitting them any chance you know they show up on the radar.
NORTHAM: In early 2024, the Biden administration mounted a coalition of about 20 countries to help secure the Red Sea, but it wasn't able to permanently curb the threat by Houthis. Jonathan Roach, an analyst at Braemar ACM Shipbroking in London, says even if this latest U.S. operation can stop Houthi attacks, shipping companies will wait before reworking their routes and head back to the Red Sea.
JONATHAN ROACH: When you're operating a liner company or an alliance, you need to be certain. Changing things probably (inaudible) to take, you know, a good three to six months of no hostilities to container ships before they'll actually risk it.
NORTHAM: And certainty in the Middle East is a rare commodity. Jackie Northam, NPR News.
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