ELISSA NADWORNY, HOST:
There are major developments in Syria's once-stagnant civil war. Opposition fighters have taken control of major cities and are trying to take Homs as they inch closer to Damascus in a bid to topple the regime. That's more than a decade after the start of the unrest, which began with widespread protests. The Syrian government has relied on Iran and Russia to cling to power for all that time. Now those allies distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and Lebanon appear to be backing away with huge implications for Syria and the region. NPR's Jane Arraf joins us from the Kurdistan region of Iraq bordering Syria. Good morning, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, BYLINE: Good morning, Elissa.
NADWORNY: So since this offensive started some two weeks ago, we've seen developments on the ground moving at a lightning pace. What's the latest?
ARRAF: Well, the speed and the pace of this offensive is astonishing. A monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, now says that opposition fighters are just a few miles from the gates of the capital, Damascus. They earlier took Daraa province, which was the start of the uprising that led to civil war more than a decade ago. And they appear close to be taking the major city of Homs, which would allow the opposition to isolate regime forces in coastal areas - Latakia and Tartus - which are key to President Bashar al-Assad's support.
NADWORNY: You just mentioned Tartus, where Russia has one of its few foreign bases. What is Russia doing at the moment?
ARRAF: Well, it appears to be pulling out its warships, according to U.S. military sources. It propped up the Syrian regime the last time that the government faced a much more limited threat. And Russia is still launching airstrikes in support of the Syrian government, but it doesn't seem able or willing to devote the resources it has in the past.
NADWORNY: So I guess the big question here has to be if this insurgency could result in the fall of the al-Assad regime. And if that happens, what would that mean for Iran?
ARRAF: So when the Syrian regime 10 years ago lost control of Aleppo, the major city, Russian - Russia and Iran helped retake it. But they're both now in much weaker positions because they're fighting other conflicts. Mouaz Moustafa - who is an activist - the director of the U.S.-based Syrian Emergency Task Force, says these territorial losses we're seeing are of huge significance to Iran, which has used Syria as a corridor to send weapons and fighters to Lebanon and Iraq.
MOUAZ MOUSTAFA: It is the fact that Iran has lost its logistical hub in the Middle East, and it has lost its connection of Tehran and Baghdad to Beirut or Damascus or the border of Jordan or the border of the Golan Heights or the border of Israel.
ARRAF: So there are a lot of borders there, as you can see.
NADWORNY: Yeah.
ARRAF: And while speaking, Moustafa was getting calls from other activists who have been working for years for this moment and what they hope will follow 13 years of gathering opposition forces, getting international support, building cases of war crimes against Syrian officials. You know, in this region, Syria, for centuries, has been considered sort of the beating heart of the Middle East. And between the civil war, the Syrian regime actions and sanctions, the country has been shattered. So for the opposition, it seems like the first time in a decade that there's a real chance of building a new Syria. But, Elissa, to do that, obviously, they'll have to include regime supporters and what is still a divided opposition.
NADWORNY: So refugees are obviously a huge concern here - 5 million people fled Syria during the civil war. You know, would some of these Syrians go back in the event of a regime change?
ARRAF: Yeah. You know, a generation has been born as refugees outside their own country. And right now, their families are glued to their phones, watching news coverage, showing split screens with the rebel advances. If it were safe enough and they could rebuild their homes, many of them would return to Syria tomorrow.
NADWORNY: That's NPR's Jane Arraf. Jane, thank you so much.
ARRAF: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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