ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
On the edge of Europe, an election in a small country is shaping up to be a big deal. Tomorrow, the former Soviet Republic of Moldova will hold both a presidential vote and a landmark referendum on whether to make joining the European Union an official national goal. And that's putting it at odds with Russia and exposing yet another geopolitical divide with the West. Joining us to talk about this is NPR's Frank Langfitt, who reports on democracy, and NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Hello.
FRANK LANGFITT, BYLINE: Hey, Rob.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Hi there.
SCHMITZ: So, Charles, we're going to start with you. Moldova is a small country, for those not familiar. I'd like to maybe get a brief history lesson from you on why it's become sort of the latest flash point between Russia and the West.
MAYNES: Well, there's a brief history lesson, but Moldova was part of the latter-day Russian Empire and, of course, later, the USSR. But with the end of the Soviet Union, Moldova, like other Republics, gained independence, and post-Soviet Russia's embrace has been difficult to shake off, particularly with Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. You know, it's wedged between Romania and Ukraine. Moldova has an agricultural economy. It's one of Europe's poorest countries, and Russia sought to keep Moldova in its sphere of influence using not only gas politics but trade and also information, says Valeriu Pasha. He's the head of the WatchDog community, a prodemocracy think tank based in Moldova's capital, Chisinau.
VALERIU PASHA: Just to give you a sense, between 1991 and 2019, always, nonstop, the most popular TV station in the country was Russian First channel, always, for 28 years of independence.
SCHMITZ: Well, that's really interesting, Charles. So how has that picture changed?
MAYNES: Well, it really changed with the election of Maia Sandu, an American-educated politician who became the president of Moldova back in 2020 and really set it back on an unambiguous pro-Western path. For example, she's ended Moldova's reliance on Russian gas. She's joined the West imposing sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. And no surprise, all of this has put Moldova increasingly at odds with the Kremlin, and it all comes to a head this Sunday when Moldova not only chooses a president, it also holds this yes-or-no vote on whether to make membership in the European Union part of Moldova's constitution - in other words, making a pro-European policy much harder for future governments or even Moscow to undo.
SCHMITZ: So Frank, I'm going to pivot to you now. You reported from Moldova after the war in Ukraine began in 2022. And you've been in touch with people there this week. What role do they say that Russia is playing regarding this pivotal referendum?
LANGFITT: Hey, Rob. In short, buying votes to defeat this referendum - you know, prosecutors in Moldova - they say about $15 million was transferred into the country in September to buy off about 130,000 voters, which is a lot in a small country. And, Rob, this is, like, no secret. There's this pro-Russian oligarch named Ilan Shor. He's now living in exile in Russia. He went on Telegram, the social media platform, offering 270 bucks to people who could get a majority of people at their polling stations to vote against the EU referendum and to support Shor's candidate for president. I was talking to a guy named Nicolae Panfil on Thursday. He works with Promo-LEX. It's an independent human rights organization. And he says this is a real threat to democracy.
NICOLAE PANFIL: The interference from abroad is very, very dangerous not only for Moldova, but also for the other countries in the region where Russian Federation has an interest.
SCHMITZ: Two-hundred and seventy bucks to buy a vote - you know, so, Charles, I mean, Frank mentioned this guy, Ilan Shor. He apparently lives in Moscow. What does he say about these allegations against him?
MAYNES: You know, Shor is an interesting character. He's sanctioned by the West and was convicted in Moldova for stealing a vast sum - 1 billion, with a B, dollars - from the country's central bank.
SCHMITZ: Wow.
MAYNES: Now he argues these vote buying schemes are fabricated. It's a way, he says, for Sandu's team - that's the Moldovan president - to tarnish anyone who votes against EU integration and distract from Moldova's economic problems. Moreover, Shor makes no secret about what he thinks is the fix, Moldova's return into the Russian fold. Here he is in an interview on state television here that he gave over the summer.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
ILAN SHOR: (Non-English language spoken).
MAYNES: So here, Shor says that all post-Soviet countries should unite economically, ideologically, in their foreign policy and security. And he argues the West sold Moldova the myth of a European future that it will never see while undermining the benefits of aligning with Russia.
SCHMITZ: So turning back to Frank here, you know, Frank, this information obviously is a problem in elections around the world. How is disinformation playing out in Moldova?
LANGFITT: Yeah. It's all over the place, Rob. There have been sustained campaigns for a long time to frighten Moldovans and get them to fear that closer ties with the EU and the United States will lead to some kind of Russian military retaliation. Here in Washington, the Atlantic Council - they have a digital forensic lab, and they've been studying pro-Russian social media and how they're spreading a lot of fake stories.
And here are a couple of examples. One false claim that the U.S. providing F-16s destined for Ukraine might actually station them in Moldova, which - the argument was - would provoke a Russian attack. Another fake story - Ukraine planning to attack Transnistria. This is a separatist region in Moldova, where Russia has more than 1,000 troops. Of course, Ukraine has more than its hands full, fighting Russia right now on its own soil.
SCHMITZ: So these are all examples of sort of foreign influence operations. And they get a lot of attention, but, you know, is there any sign that these foreign influence operations are - you know, the - at least the ones in Moldova - are effective?
LANGFITT: I think, in some ways, they are, you know, part because Russia shares a language, culture and history with Moldova, so the disinformation people know how to push the buttons there. I was talking to people on the ground in Moldova this week, and they think just disinformation on TikTok has helped make some young people more uncertain about supporting the referendum tomorrow.
And I've had personal experience. I was in a place called Gagauzia. It's a Russian-speaking autonomous region in Moldova. This was a couple of years back. And people on the street were showing me Russian YouTube videos that they said - you know, this shows that the Ukrainians are Nazis. So definitely in Russian-speaking areas, it actually really gets through.
SCHMITZ: That's interesting. You know, going back to Charles here in Moscow, what's the Kremlin's reaction been to these accusations of election interference?
MAYNES: Well, the Kremlin claims that Sandu and the West are intentionally promoting fear of Russia, and it's issued formal denials of election interference. But other Russian officials, including the foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, say it's the West that's out to undermine Moldova's sovereignty and culture. In fact, the other day, Zakharova spent the better part of an hour on the airwaves detailing some of the same talking points and conspiracies that Frank mentioned earlier.
SCHMITZ: Yeah. And, Frank, given your reporting, why do you think listeners should continue to keep an eye on places like Moldova?
LANGFITT: You know, Rob, I think it's countries like Moldova - also, the Baltics, Taiwan of South China Sea, which you know very well from your time in China - it's these kind of places in between that have become a battleground between the Democratic West and authoritarians in Russia and China looking to bring back countries into their sphere of influence or take over territories in their entirety and kind of marks this new era of competition between great powers, what some people are calling a new Cold War.
SCHMITZ: That's NPRs Frank Langfitt and Charles Maynes. Thanks to both of you.
LANGFITT: Great to talk, Rob.
MAYNES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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