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Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly insisted his country is united behind the war effort in Ukraine. Many Russian polls confirm it, showing some 70% of Russians support his actions, but an independent study now suggests a more complicated picture. NPR's Charles Maynes reports from Moscow.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Russian opposition activist Aleksei Miniailo argues polls are just another weapon in the Kremlin's arsenal when it comes to Ukraine.
ALEKSEI MINIAILO: They always try to construct an illusion of overwhelming support.
MAYNES: Even if that support, Miniailo argues, is built on fear. After all, in an environment where criticism of the Russian military can land you years in jail, what would you say if a pollster cold-called asking your opinion about the war in Ukraine, a war that polls and state propaganda insist is overwhelmingly popular?
MINIAILO: So the majority of people just adapt to what they think the majority is thinking and doing.
MAYNES: Enter the polling outlier called Chronicles. Launched by Miniailo, together with a small team of researchers in the early days of the Russian invasion, the project claims to offer a more realistic take on Russian attitudes by posing more nuanced questions to Russians, says Miniailo - such as, would you prefer if the state budget was spent on something other than the military? Or would you personally be willing to go fight in Ukraine if the order comes? Then...
MINIAILO: Their opinions shift very quickly.
MAYNES: Miniailo says, using these types of more probing questions, Chronicles' latest findings show Russians increasingly exhausted by more than 2 1/2 years of war.
MINIAILO: Eighty-four percent want Russia to concentrate on home affairs. More than half want to reconcile with the West - 63% want a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions.
MAYNES: And nearly as many, he adds, support withdrawing troops even if that means Russia not reaching its military goals. Miniailo notes these same respondents overwhelmingly claim to support the Russian leader. Again, fear is still part of the equation.
MINIAILO: So we see people simultaneously declaring support for Putin and saying that they want things that are absolutely against what Putin is doing.
MAYNES: Miniailo, a rare critical voice who continues to work inside Russia despite the risks, acknowledges there are few avenues for Russians to actually express their discontent. Public protest and criticism of the war are outlawed. And there are those who argue Miniailo is engaged in a kind of soft confirmation bias. After all, he openly calls for an end to the war and a more democratic future. In essence, Miniailo is placing a bet that public opinion still has the power to shape realities in Russia, particularly when the polls that reflect those opinions are actually real.
Charles Maynes, NPR News, Moscow.
(SOUNDBITE OF CECILE ROY'S "PURITY") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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