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The Latest On GOP Candidate Race Iowa

Jan 31, 2016
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Trump's Confidence Grows Amid Iowa Race Poll Results

Jan 31, 2016
Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Iowa and New Hampshire get a lot of attention, but their records in picking presidents, let alone nominees, is spotty (as you can see from the chart above). But that doesn't mean the states don't matter. They have been effective at weeding the field of candidates, and they're about momentum for those later states.

Plus, in the last 40 years, just one person has gone on to win the presidency after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire — Bill Clinton.

Here's how the predictability of the states breaks down by party:

Donald Trump said a final word to evangelical voters on Saturday by showing them the Word of God.

In a Facebook video, the real estate mogul opens his Bible to thank "the evangelicals" for the support they've shown him in polls.

"My mother gave me this Bible, this very Bible, many years ago," Trump says. "In fact, it's her writing, right here. She wrote the name, and my address, and it's just very special to me."

He closes this way: "I want to thank the evangelicals," he says. "I will never let you down."

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump lead narrowly just two days before the Iowa caucuses in the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, considered the "gold standard" of Iowa polling.

But Clinton's 3-point lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is within the margin of error.

Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 5 points, but pollster J. Ann Selzer noted that if evangelicals turn out in similar percentages to years past, Trump's lead shrinks to 1, though he still leads.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders' campaigns have agreed in principle to six more Democratic presidential debates following the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1, though the deal has not been finalized, according to campaign and party officials.

Currently, the Democratic National Committee has only two more sanctioned debates: Feb. 11 in Milwaukee, Wis., sponsored by PBS NewsHour and March 9 in Miami, Fla., sponsored by Univision.

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Transcript

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

In the winter of 1987, music producer Todd Lockwood was on the lookout for a hot new project to grow his label. Lockwood owned the White Crow recording studio in Burlington, Vt. — and he didn't have to look far to find his bold idea.

That idea? Get Bernie Sanders — then the longtime mayor of Burlington — into the studio to record a few of his favorite songs.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich is campaigning in New Hampshire today in advance of that state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary, which will be held one week from Tuesday.

While most presidential candidates are spending this weekend in Iowa, Kasich is hoping to break out of the crowded Republican field in the Granite State, and said today if he doesn't, it may be the end of the road for his candidacy.

"If I get snuffed out, I go home — end of story," Kasich said while urging voters to support him.

Kasich held his final event in Iowa on Friday.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is known for being one of the most disliked men in Washington. As he tries to win over voters, his wife Heidi Cruz is trying to vouch for his character and show people that he has a softer side.

Iowa's process of picking its choice for president is complicated. We try to demystify it in this space.

Here are the basics:

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Transcript

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

There are different ways to reach voters. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders delivers fiery speeches that fill concert halls and arenas. But generally speaking, people don't leave Hillary Clinton events ready to start a political revolution. Big speeches and soaring rhetoric really aren't her thing.

Instead, the former secretary of state is trying to win voters over by being a wonk who delivers page after page of policy white papers. As Clinton makes her closing argument in Iowa, "in my plan" has to be the most oft repeated phrase in her stump speech.

Harry Rubenstein is deep in a thought about a log cabin when he pauses, mid-sentence, and disappears down a corridor.

He returns a moment later brandishing a large wooden ax.

Rubenstein is the chair of the political history division at the Smithsonian Museum of American History, and he's standing in a room that's packed with about 100,000 items from previous presidential elections. The collection, he says, ranges "from a little bit before the American Revolution, to probably last week."

Every four years when the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary roll around, the critics and cynics question why such unrepresentative patches of America get to vote first in presidential nominating contests. Why is so much political power, they complain, given to states that are more white and more rural than the rest of the country?

The big news about Hillary Clinton's emails came earlier today: 22 emails she sent on her controversial private server while at the State Department have been deemed top secret and won't be released to the public.

The State Department reiterated Friday that "these documents were not marked classified at the time they were sent," something the Clinton campaign has been arguing the whole time. Her campaign also pushed back against what is sees as "overclassification run amok."

What does The Internet call a woman who scares Donald Trump out of a presidential debate?

a) Bitch
b) Slut
c) Whore
d) Bimbo
e) Megyn Kelly
f) All of the above

This week, the answer was F. Let us explain.

This year, just in time for the New Hampshire primary, NPR's political team has a gift for you: everything you need to know about the caucuses and this election season in one handy PDF.

We're giving you behind-the-scenes access to the network's 2016 New Hampshire and Iowa Briefing Book.

Inside you'll find everything you need to get ready for Tuesday. Starting with: When are polls open? How many delegates are at stake? And what could turnout look like?

The way Donald Trump sees it, he was still the big winner of Thursday night's Fox News debate, even though he wasn't on stage.

And at his campaign rally Friday in Nashua, N.H., the billionaire real estate mogul singled out the biggest loser — top rival Ted Cruz.

The Texas senator "got really pummeled," Trump said. He later joked that Cruz, who Trump has argued is not qualified to be president because he was born in Canada, was "an anchor baby in Canada."

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Transcript

AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:

Since 1972, Iowa has held the first presidential nominating contests in the country. Over the years, the Iowa caucuses have grown in size, scope and importance, sometimes launching underdogs to the presidency or upsetting established political juggernauts.

With the Iowa caucuses just days away, the NPR Politics Podcast team is joined by special guest Clay Masters, the host of Morning Edition on Iowa Public Radio. Clay, who's covering the presidential campaign, talks about his experience knocking on doors with both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns.

The team also looks at big moments from the latest, Trump-less, Republican debate and gets into the latest evolution of social media in politics — the negative Snapchat filter.

Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Transcript

ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:

Well, now to our Friday political commentators, columnists David Brooks of The New York Times, who's with me in the studio, and E.J. Dionne of The Washington Post, who's at Iowa Public Radio in Ames, Iowa. Hello to both of you.

Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Transcript

AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:

As any bridge player can tell you, the game is different when there is no trump.

On Thursday night in Des Moines, Iowa, the seventh debate among major candidates for president in the Republican Party set a new standard in both substance and tone. And it did so because the front-runner in the 2016 nomination fight, Donald J. Trump, did not attend.

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Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Transcript

RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:

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